And the LumberJack Prize Goes tooooooo…….

The Monty Python Prize for Arab politics must go to Emile Lahoud, the well-known Syrian puppet who also happens to be Lebanon’s president. Hizbullah, he explains, “is part of the Lebanese army.” Rather than disarm Hezbollah, he is saying, Lebanon’s army should fight alongside of it. Israel, by his account, should turn over southern Lebanon to the joint Lebanese army-Hizbullah forces.

Aside from invalidating the cease-fire, what Lahoud has done is to justify completely Israel’s war effort. For if Hezbollah is part of Lebanon’s army (it is already a member of the coalition government), then the attack on Israel was an act of war by Lebanon, which was completely responsible for everything that happened next.

If this is true, why should the international community rush reconstruction aid to the aggressor? And how can a cease-fire depend on a government which views itself not as Hezbollah’s master but as its ally?

We may very well be on the verge of an amazing turnaround regarding the cease-fire in Lebanon organized by the UN Security Council.

Consider the following points:

A. Hezbollah says it will not disarm voluntarily either in southern Lebanon or in the rest of the country.

B. Lebanon says it will not disarm Hezbollah unless it wants to be disarmed.

C. France, which is leading the national force of 15,000 UNIFIL soldiers that is supposed to be organized, says it will not send any troops if Hezbollah still has arms in southern Lebanon.

D. Israel says that if Hezbollah does return to its positions with weapons, the IDF will resume its offensive.

In short, the whole basis of the cease-fire is on the verge of collapse, and it is hard to see how it can be saved.

The reason for this is that Hezbollah will not even accept the minimum actions needed to activate the cease-fire. Its motives for this are several:

• Given their ideology and practice, they are not interested in making any compromise but believe they can get everything they want.
• They are being prodded toward intransigence by Iran and Syria.
• They have contempt for the West, which they see as a paper tiger, unwilling to take action against them.

If the war restarts, Hezbollah is going to face far greater pressures, especially since the Israeli government’s leaders have already been harshly criticized for going too slowly in the ground offensive.

Everything could turn around very quickly. Given what is happening, this prospect seems pretty possible.

Barry Rubin is director of the Global Research in International Affairs Center at the Interdisciplinary University and editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs Journal.